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    Week Four: Games of the Week

    the-oil-blog
    We're at the point in the season where a single loss can drop a team's playoff chances by as much as 30%. Unfortunately, we're also getting into bye week and injury season. The NFC number-one Whackers lost their starting QB for the year. Multiple star players are on byes. But the season rolls on. To the games:
    ​Category
    2-1
    Record
    3-0
    160.28
    Points Per Game
    163.93
    189.71
    ​OPR
    204.82
    54.5%
    89.5%
    War Pony is a two-time champion in this league, so his number-one ranking is not a surprise. But the Brewmasters have never been a true contender. If they're to make a bid for a championship, it starts here. Fortunately, War Pony is dealing with a host of bye weeks and injuries. That's why I'm picking the second-ranked Brew Crew to knock them off and ascend to the top spot.
    ​Category
    2-1
    Record
    3-0
    168.43
    Points Per Game
    156.58
    192.99
    ​OPR
    200.16
    54.2%
    89.5%
    Last week's number-one team faces this week's number-one team. The upstart Roughnecks vs. two-time champion Lucky Enuf. If Pyle can pull it out, his playoff chances will increase to 90.9%. The Roughnecks can move to a 59.6% playoff chance with a win. Although Baldwin's averaging 12 more points per game, I'm picking Lucky Enuf to get to 4-0. Baldwin just has too many injuries and byes. 
    ​Category
    2-1
    Record
    2-1
    144.32
    Points Per Game
    164.83
    171.12
    ​OPR
    188.06
    54.2%
    54.2%
    The winner here sees their playoff odds move to 59.6%. The loser? 43.2%. Unfortunately, Cordes and Sixers are dealing with injuries to TE Evan Engram and RB Jay Ajayi. I'm picking Tadlock to march further towards the playoffs.
  • Published on

    Week Three: Games of the Week

    the-oil-blog
    It's on to Week Three in the OIL, and we've got some great matchups coming up. Let's get to them: 
    ​Category
    1-1
    Record
    2-0
    145.35
    Points Per Game
    175.78
    165.35
    ​OPR
    215.78
    43.33%
    62.8%
    Here we have the two-time defending champion Redlegs versus the upstart, top-ranked Brewmasters. This game is pivotal for Zerger, as a loss for the Redlegs would drop the defending champs' playoff odds to 29.89%. A win would increase that percentage to 54.2%. The Brewmasters are coasting on autodraft, but points are points. 

    This game will depend on the production of the Redlegs QB position, as they've been hamstrung the past two weeks by Marcus Mariota and Case Keenum. Remarkably, the Redlegs have averaged 145.35 points per game while only getting 9.675 points per game from the QB position. If Zerger can solidify his QB spot, he can win this one, and I'm picking him to pull the upset. 
    ​Category
    0-2
    Record
    0-2
    112.93
    Points Per Game
    130.89
    112.93
    ​OPR
    130.89
    22.2%
    22.2%
    It is pretty early to have a playoff-elimination game, but that's what I think we have here. Teams that begin the season 0-3 have reached the playoffs only 5% of the time over 15 OIL seasons, and these two are 0-2. The AMMODOGS has a good team on paper, but they've massively disappointed due to regression from Deshaun Watson, Eli Manning's pop-gun arm handicapping Odell Beckham, and injuries to Jay Ajayi and Doug Baldwin. SoonerJack is a three-time champion who is always a trade away from contending. Largely due to the injuries, I'm picking Bruesch and SoonerJack to beat the AMMODOGS. However, even at 0-3, Rogers could buck the trend and make the playoffs. It all depends on health and things getting sorted out in the Houston and New York offenses. 

    SoonerJack is attempting to intimidate the AMMODOGS by wearing their black jerseys commemorating their third OIL championship in 2015. We'll see if it works. 
    ​Category
    2-0
    Record
    2-0
    149.00
    Points Per Game
    191.38
    189.16
    ​OPR
    231.38
    62.8%
    62.8%
    In contrast to the NFC's Game of the Week, the winner of this matchup will increase his playoff chances to 89.5%. But the Great Plains Drifters look like paper tigers right now. Although they have the same 2-0 record as the FDC Chiefs, they average over 40 fewer points per game and their OPR is over 40 points lower than the Chiefs. I'm picking Pennington and his Chiefs​ to win this one. 
  • Published on

    NEW: Playoff Odds Calculator

    the-oil-blog
    Picture

    Pictured: OIL analytics and statistics department

    The OIL's analytics and statistics department has crunched the weekly data across 15 different OIL seasons to provide you with the below playoff odds calculator. While this chart cannot take into account your team makeup or remaining schedule, it can tell you what percentage of teams with your record reached the playoffs or championship game. 

    The data is now available in the OIL league history spreadsheet and is embedded at okiraqi.org/playoffs. You can access the file directly here.
  • Published on

    Week Two Standings

    the-oil-blog
    Picture
    After two weeks, the PFC's FDC Chiefs lead the OIL at 2-0 and the most points in the league (191.75 per game). But it were the AFC's Brewmasters who scored the most points in the season's second stanza, with 205.35 points. The scoring explosion moved the Brew Crew to number one in the AFC, while the NFC and PFC's top teams remain unchanged with the Roughnecks and FDC Chiefs holding the top spots, respectively. Click the standings to access the league on ​Yahoo!. 

    After crunching the data of 15 OIL seasons' worth of records, I found that the playoff odds at this point are: 
    • 62.8% of 2-0 teams reached the playoffs; 23.3% reached the championship;
    • 43.33% of 1-1 teams reached playoffs; 12.5% reached the championship;
    • 22.22% of 0-2 reached playoffs; 8.89% reached championship.
    AFC
    NFC
    PFC
    Here is the current OPR for each manager going into Week Three: