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    2018 Rivalry Week Preview

    the-oil-blog
    Picture
    Finally, Rivalry Week is upon us. For some leagues, Week 13 has no special significance. And, if the AFC were one of those other leagues, it would certainly have little relevance, as all six playoff spots are clinched. But the OIL is different, and we reserve the last week of the regular season for rivalry games. See the matchups after the jump. Commentary is limited to matchups that have playoff implications, as 21 matchups is a lot to sift through when the commish is about to head to DFW for the Saints-Cowboys game. 
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    ​Vultures
    Category
    ​Doughboys
    8-4
    Record
    7-5
    141.75
    ​Points Per Game
    154.08
    1.016 (19th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.089 ​(7th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    The Vultures can improve their playoff seed, but they're not likely to move into a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the Doughboys can clinch a first-round bye with a victory.
    Cocks
    Category
    ​Sawtooths
    8-4
    Record
    4-8
    150.90
    ​Points Per Game
    141.48
    1.072 (13th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.944 (25th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    Should the Vultures upset the Doughboys, the Cocks can move into the number-two spot with a win here. 
    ​Brewmasters
    Category
    Steel Reign
    4-8
    Record
    5-7
    138.57
    ​Points Per Game
    138.56
    0.931 (28th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.915 (30th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    War Eagle
    Category
    NDs
    5-7
    Record
    4-8
    133.16
    ​Points Per Game
    136.13
    0.898 (33rd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.908 (31st)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    ​War Pony
    Category
    Hooligans
    10-2
    Record
    4-8
    164.81
    ​Points Per Game
    118.61
    ​1.195 (2nd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.808 (39th)​
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    ​Apes
    Category
    Warm Bodies
    4-8
    Record
    8-4
    137.18
    ​Points Per Game
    147.44
    0.938 (26th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.073 (12th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    ​Rebels
    Category
    Redlegs
    5-7
    Record
    7-5
    153.68
    ​Points Per Game
    154.08
    1.008 (21st)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.089 (10th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
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    Hangovers
    Category
    'Mericans
    5-7
    Record
    7-5
    155.18
    ​Points Per Game
    144.84
    1.036 (15th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.029 (17th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    74.2%
    Due to Christian McCaffrey's 46 points last week, the Hangovers have been eliminated from playoff contention. But they can still play spoiler and knock the 'Mericans out of the playoffs with a win. That's what I expect to happen, although the 'Mericans can back their way into the playoffs if Dead Again loses.
    AMMODOGS
    Category
    DominationStation
    0-12
    Record
    5-7
    119.74
    ​Points Per Game
    154.61
    .724 (42nd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.020 (18th)
    ​Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    NARCS
    Category
    ​Hippies
    4-8
    Record
    4-8
    138.71
    ​Points Per Game
    130.81
    0.899 (32nd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.868 (37th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    Dead Again
    Category
    Lucky Enuf
    7-5
    Record
    10-2
    135.5
    ​Points Per Game
    161.44
    0.938 (27th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.162 (4th)
    74.2%
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    Lucky Enuf has the number-one seed locked up, but they can keep Dead Again from making the playoffs with a win here. If Dead Again wants to break his eight-year streak of no playoffs, he will have to win and hope the 'Mericans lose. 
    ​Roughnecks
    Category
    ​Hard Targets
    8-4
    Record
    5-7
    ​Points Per Game
    1.121 (6th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.968 (24th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    ​Whackers
    Category
    ​Nobodies
    8-4
    Record
    4-8
    164.05
    ​Points Per Game
    138.08
    1.171 (3rd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.927 (29th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    If the Whackers take care of business here, they can clinch a first-round bye with a loss by the Dogs of War. The Nobodies have nothing to play for but pride at this point.
    Dogs of War
    Category
    ​SoonerJack
    9-3
    Record
    8-4
    150.30
    ​Points Per Game
    149.52
    1.093 (9th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.066 (14th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    96.9%
    The Dogs of War can clinch a first-round bye with a win here. Even with a loss, it's likely that SoonerJack makes the playoffs, but a win would cement it. They'll be without Leonard Fournette though, as he was suspended for setting a bad example for America's youth.
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    ​Dogs
    Category
    ​Brawlers
    10-2
    Record
    5-7
    159.82
    ​Points Per Game
    147.11
    1.153 (5th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.994 (22nd)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    This is a re-match of last year's title game, but this year is completely different. The Brawlers have had bad luck all season and will not make the playoffs for the first time in their OIL tenure. Even with a loss, the Dogs will likely clinch a first-round bye.
    Vandals
    Category
    Falcons
    4-8
    Record
    6-6
    135.21
    ​Points Per Game
    148.69
    0.880 (35th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.029 (16th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    34.3%
    This is a must-win for the Blue Falcons. They need to win and have either Team Tadlock or the Orangebloods lose in order to sneak into the playoffs. 
    ​Sixers
    Category
    ​Enforcers
    4-8
    Record
    3-9
    131.57
    ​Points Per Game
    127.69
    0.878 (36th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.839 (38th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    ​Tadlock
    Category
    ​Chiefs
    6-6
    Record
    10-2
    162.08
    ​Points Per Game
    171.79
    1.108 (8th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.234 (1st)
    34.3%
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    Team Tadlock have the second-most points in the PFC and the eighth-best OPR in the entire OIL, but they're sitting at 6-6 due to a string of bad luck. They can sneak into the playoffs with a loss as long as the Blue Falcons lose, but they can clinch the playoff spot with a win. The Chiefs have won seven straight and are the strongest team in the OIL, so it'll be tough. 
    ​Drifters
    Category
    Xtreme
    9-3
    Record
    8-4
    146.29
    ​Points Per Game
    139.45
    1.080 (11th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.010 (20th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    Both these teams have clinched playoff spots, but neither has a realistic chance at securing a first-round bye. This game will instead determine the three and four seeds. 
    Nightmares
    Category
    Orangebloods
    4-8
    Record
    7-5
    129.97
    ​Points Per Game
    139.91
    0.891 (34th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.977 (23rd)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    The Orangebloods are in a good spot but a scenario exists where they lose this game and miss the playoffs. They would have to lose while both Team Tadlock and the Blue Falcons won in order to for that to happen. It's not incredibly likely, but the Orangebloods control their destiny and should take advantage.
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    Week 12: Standings; OPR; and Playoff Picture

    the-oil-blog
    Heading into Rivalry Week, a whopping 12 of 18 playoff berths are clinched. Below are the standings and playoff picture for each conference. 
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    Well, this is a first. With one week remaining, all six playoff spots are clinched. Now all that is left is the seeding. Venable and War Pony are locked into the one seed and a first-round bye. The number-two spot is a toss-up between Green and Peacock, as the Doughboys and Cocks are separated by just 13 points. Should each of them win, it will come down to their point totals to determine who gets a coveted first-round bye. The Warm Bodies and Vultures each sport the same 8-4 record as the second- and third-place teams, but Nye and Brosh are so far behind in points that neither can overtake Green and Peacock. The six seed is Zerger and his two-time defending champion Redlegs. With a win and losses by three of the four teams ahead of him (aside from Venable), he can finish as high as third due to his high point total. 
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    Week 12: Games of the Week

    the-oil-blog
    Multiple teams have clinched playoff berths, and more can clinch with a win this week. 
    ​Doughboys
    Category
    ​War Pony
    8-3
    Record
    9-2
    150.48
    Points Per Game
    161.82
    1.130 (5th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.213 (2nd)
    Clinched
    Clinched
    The stakes here are huge: the winner is virtually assured a first-round bye in the playoffs. Despite stumbling last week, War Pony has been a superior team all season, and I expect them to win this one easily. 
    'Mericans
    Category
    Whackers
    6-5
    Record
    8-3
    143.72
    Points Per Game
    165.37
    1.017 (19th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.192 (3rd)
    46.2%
    100%
    The stakes differ for each team in this NFC matchup between two original OIL franchises. If the Whackers win, they are in the driver's seat for a first-round bye. If they lose, they likely lose the bye. The 'Mericans, meanwhile, absolutely need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Teams that enter Rivalry Week at 6-6 have only made the playoffs 34.3% of the time, and the 'Mericans have the tough Hangovers next week. Sadly, after starting 4-0, the 'Mericans are in real danger of missing the playoffs because I think Morgan will beat my 'Mericans this week.
    Blue Falcons
    Category
    Drifters
    6-5
    Record
    8-3
    150.60
    Points Per Game
    144.55
    1.040 (16th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.070 (12th)
    46.2%
    100%
    Similar stakes here, as the Drifters seek a first-round bye and the Falcons need a win to remain in the playoff race. Unlike the Arrogant Americans, though, I think they'll get it, setting up a win-and-in matchup next week against the Vandals. 
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    Introducing Adjusted OPR

    the-oil-blog
    Just before the 2017 season, the OIL introduced the OIL Power Rating (OPR) system. Today, the OPR has evolved in a way that makes it easier to compare apples to apples across all conferences and all seasons. The formula and full explanation are available year-round at okiraqi.org/opr.

    The Adjusted OPR takes your team's OPR and divides it by the average OPR of all teams across each conference. The result is a multiple that illustrates exactly how your team stacks up to the baseline, perfectly average team. Below are the current OPR rankings under the new system. The FDC Chiefs' score of 1.243 means Pennington's squad is about 1.25 times stronger than the perfectly average, baseline team. Anything over 1.0 indicates an above-average team; anything below 1.0 indicates a below average team. 
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    As of now, career OPR still lists the raw score, but that will change soon. The adjusted OPR has been added to each manager page for each season played as well. Below is Pyle's manager page, evidencing the following:
    In 2012, Lucky Enuf finished 6-7 and missed the playoffs. But was his team bad or just unlucky? His raw OPR was 172.07, while the average for 2012 was 155.32. Applying the adjusted OPR formula (172.07/155.32) shows that Lucky Enuf was 1.108 times better than the average 2012 team. An adjusted OPR of 1.108 indicates that Lucky Enuf was one of the stronger teams in the league that season but fell victim to a tough schedule (for comparison, the 2012 champion's adjusted OPR was just a tick higher at 1.133).
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    And the adjusted score makes it easier to compare seasons. Henderson's manager page is instructive. 
    In 2013, his DARC NARCS finished with a losing record and missed the playoffs. In 2015, they won 11 games and finished second in the NFC. But, compared to the average team of each respective season, the 2013 DARC NARCS were a better team than the runner-up 2015 version, even while having a winning percentage 20+ points worse than 2015 (winning percentage is weighted at 20% of the OPR raw score).
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    So check out your manager pages and enjoy comparing apples to apples.
  • Published on

    Week 11: Games of the Week

    the-oil-blog
    The scheduling gods have brought us favor, as all three conferences feature matchups between top-four teams. Two teams (Lucky Enuf and War Pony) have clinched playoff berths, but the rest of the field is wide open. These games will play a huge role in who enjoys a first-round bye. 
    Category
    7-3
    ​Record
    8-2
    151.41
    ​Points Per Game
    162.18
    181.77 (10th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    189.26 (6th)
    96.4%
    ​Playoff Chances
    100%
    These two teams have similar records, but have taken different paths to get there. While the Redlegs have relied on huge games from RBs Todd Gurley and Tarik Cohen, the Cocks have won seven games off the strength of the WR corps: Odell Beckham, Jr.; Tyreek Hill; and Amari Cooper. The Redlegs are without top TE David Njoku this week, but they're still favored to win. Look at them to clinch a playoff spot and get that much closer to a first-round bye with a win here.
    Category
    7-3
    ​Record
    8-2
    149.49
    ​Points Per Game
    169.16
    177.75 (12th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    201.30 (3rd)
    96.4%
    ​Playoff Chances
    100%
    These two former champions are only one game apart, despite the Whackers outscoring the Dogs of War by an average of 20 points per game. However, due to losing two starters to byes this week, the Whackers are actually underdogs this week. But, with the Dogs missing secret weapon TE George Kittle this week, I believe the Whackers​ will move to 9-2.
    Category
    8-2
    ​Record
    8-2
    145.98
    ​Points Per Game
    159.84
    179.80 (11th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    188.81 (7th)
    100%
    ​Playoff Chances
    100%
    Despite winning 80% of their games thus far, the Drifters appear to be paper tigers . . . and they're without two starters due to byes this week. Meanwhile, the Dirty Dogs are at full strength and have average 15 points per game more than the Drifters this season. Look for the Dirty Dogs to win in a rout.