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    Republic Restored: Roe, 'Rebels' claim victory

    the-oil-blog
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    Rebel Alliance TE Darren Waller

    SHAWNEE –– Four years after Championship Week heartbreak, the Rebel Alliance have claimed their first AFC title. Roe began his season with arguably the AFC's best draft class (ranked third by RateMyLeague.com) and then added breakout star TE Darren Waller in free agency. That was enough to win nine regular-season games and achieve the second-highest OPR OIL-wide. But the Rebels finished one game behind Steel Reign​, dropping them to the AFC's second seed. However, given the opportunity to prove who the better team was on the field, the Rebels beat Steel Reign in the Thunder Bowl to claim their first championship.
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    Roe survived below-par games from QB Russell Wilson, WRs Tyreek Hill and Anthony Miller, and TE Darren Waller in large part due to Fitzgerald's team underperforming even worse.
    Despite the loss, it was a great year for Fitzgerald. His Steel Reign squad won 10 regular-season games while he spent the season in Prague, Czech Republic. So, who's the real winner here?
  • Published on

    2019 Playoffs: Semifinals

    the-oil-blog
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    And then there were 12. The AFC and PFC are guaranteed first-time champions, while the NFC has a 75% at a repeat champ. Round One lived up to the playoff hype with all but one matchup coming down to Monday Night Football. Congratulations to the semifinalists. Pour one out, however, for those championship contenders no longer with us:
    War Pony, the Cocks, Dead Again, DominationStation, the Havoc, and the Xtreme 
    ​    will all have to wait until 2020 to compete for a championship.
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    The AFC is down to Fitzgerald, Roe, Reed, and Green, and the field is wide open. Green and his Doughboys are In the semifinals for the fifth time in six seasons. After losing the last three Thunder Bowls, could this finally be their year?
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    This is a rare matchup where the higher seed is a full two-wins better but ranked lower in OPR. That is a testament to Green's management this season, and I think they're going to upset top-seeded Steel Reign.
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    The Sawtooths fought valiantly to survive Round One, but they're now facing a far superior Rebel Alliance squad who are the clear favorites to win It all . . . and they're doing it without star WR Mike Evans. Look for the Rebs to win this one in a rout and advance to their second Thunder Bowl.
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    Four teams. Seven championships between them. This is a loaded NFC field that includes three former champions, two three-time champions, and the defending champion.
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    SoonerJack is a three-time champion and the number one seed. But his 9-4 record masks a decidedly weak WR corps. Meanwhile, the Whackers coasted to a 6-1 start as perhaps the NFC favorite before injuries derailed their dominance. They upset Dead Again in Round One, though, and I think they'll do it again here to SoonerJack.
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    These are the best two teams in the NFC, but only one of them will make it to the OIL Bowl. Lucky Enuf is the defending c​hampion, and he looks to be the favorite here. Both teams are reeling from Round One injuries, but Pyle's team appears better poised to overcome them.
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    Team Tadlock and the FDC Chiefs are perennial contenders, but they're joined by the upstart Nightmares and Vandals. No matter who reaches the Patriot Bowl, it will be their first time. 
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    The Vandals are a good story, but they're no match for a historically good Nightmares team. Mitchell had not had a winning season since 2015, but his 2019 squad ranks seventh all-time in OPR. With 11 wins already, they just need one more to reach the Patriot Bowl for the first time.
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    Team Tadlock Is the third-best team in the entire OIL, but the Chiefs are always tough. Pennington is in the semifinals for the second consecutive season. While Team Tadlock has averaged over 15 more points per game than the FDC Chiefs, the Chiefs have averaged 160 points per game the last four weeks behind stellar waiver-wire pickup Ryan Tannehill. I'm picking the Chiefs to continue their hot streak straight into the Patriot Bowl.
  • Published on

    2019 Playoffs: Round One

    the-oil-blog
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    Two of three 2018 conference champions did not make the playoffs, while the NFC's Lucky Enuf is back to defend his title. Of 18 playoff contenders, only four have previously won a championship. They are: There is an 83.3% of a new champion in the AFC, as only one playoff team there has won the Killman Memorial Trophy. The NFC has a 50% chance of its champion being a first-time holder of the Lawson Memorial Trophy. The PFC will engrave a new name on the Landrum Memorial Trophy, as no 2019 playoff team has previously won a title. Click on the matchup title to view the game on Yahoo!​. ​
  • Published on

    Final Regular Season Standings and OPR

    the-oil-blog
    For most of us, Week 13 constituted the end of the 2019 season. Congratulations to those still competing, and condolences to those that aren't (myself included). Below are the final regular season standings and OPR rankings.
    AFC
    NFC
    PFC
    A new wrinkle to the OPR chart is the expected record of each team based on their OPR. The expected record is based on 299 individual seasons of data, forecasting a W/L record for each OPR. 
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  • Published on

    Rivalry Week 2019

    the-oil-blog
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    Finally, Rivalry Week is upon us. For some leagues, Week 13 has no special significance. But the OIL is different, and we reserve the last week of the regular season for rivalry games. See the matchups after the jump. 
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    ​Cocks
    Tale of the Tape
    Sawtooths
    5-7
    Record
    9-3
    3-2
    H2H Record
    2-3
    128.05
    Points Per Game
    146.34
    0.918 (32nd)
    OPR
    1.135 (5th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    Clinched
    ​Vultures
    Tale of the Tape
    Doughboys
    6-6
    Record
    7-5
    3-3
    H2H Record
    3-3
    143.95
    Points Per Game
    149.30
    1.053 (17th)
    OPR
    1.137 (4th)
    35.1%
    Playoff Odds
    74.3%
    Brewmasters
    Tale of the Tape
    Steel Reign
    9-3
    Record
    9-3
    4-1
    H2H Record
    1-4
    140.75
    Points Per Game
    144.64
    1.056 (16th)
    OPR
    1.102 (7th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Odds
    Clinched
    ​Neg. Discharges
    Tale of the Tape
    War Eagle
    2-10
    Record
    3-9
    0-1
    H2H Record
    1-0
    115.58
    Points Per Game
    119.24
    0.765 (41st)
    OPR
    0.856 (35th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    Zero
    ​Hooligans
    Tale of the Tape
    ​War Pony
    7-5
    Record
    8-4
    3-2
    H2H Record
    2-3
    138.77
    Points Per Game
    144.34
    1.031 (20th)
    OPR
    1.070 (12th)
    74.3%
    Playoff Odds
    97.5%
    ​Warm Bodies
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Apes
    1-11
    Record
    2-10
    2-3
    H2H Record
    3-2
    114.95
    Points Per Game
    115.99
    0.744 (42nd)
    OPR
    0.835 (39th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    Zero
    ​Redlegs
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Rebel Alliance
    7-5
    Record
    9-3
    2-2
    H2H Record
    2-2
    139.30
    Points Per Game
    151.44
    1.024 (23rd)
    OPR
    1.092 (10th)
    74.3%
    Playoff Odds
    Clinched
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    ​'Mericans
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Hangovers
    4-8
    Record
    7-5
    11-4
    H2H Record
    4-11
    137.05
    Points Per Game
    144.43
    1.027 (22nd)
    OPR
    1.064 (13th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    74.3%
    Dogs of War
    Tale of the Tape
    ​SoonerJack
    5-7
    Record
    8-4
    9-5
    H2H Record
    5-9
    128.74
    Points Per Game
    138.30
    0.936 (29th)
    OPR
    1.060 (15th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    97.5%
    ​Hippies
    Tale of the Tape
    NARCS
    4-8
    Record
    7-5
    4-5
    H2H Record
    5-4
    120.95
    Points Per Game
    133.25
    0.849 (36th)
    OPR
    1.022 (24th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    74.3%
    ​Lucky Enuf
    Tale of the Tape
    Dead Again
    7-5
    Record
    8-4
    9-9
    H2H Record
    9-9
    150.24
    Points Per Game
    147.46
    1.111 (6th)
    OPR
    1.155 (3rd)
    74.3%
    Playoff Odds
    97.5%
    ​Nobodies
    Tale of the Tape
    Whackers
    4-8
    Record
    7-5
    9-6
    H2H Record
    6-9
    123.41
    Points Per Game
    145.25
    0.839 (38th)
    OPR
    1.096 (9th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    74.3%
    ​Hard Targets
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Roughnecks
    6-6
    Record
    6-6
    3-5
    H2H Record
    5-3
    140.54
    Points Per Game
    144.32
    0.962 (27th)
    OPR
    1.044 (19th)
    35.1%
    Playoff Odds
    35.1%
    ​AMMODOGS
    Tale of the Tape
    ​DominationStation
    3-9
    Record
    8-4
    3-6
    H2H Record
    6-3
    133.11
    Points Per Game
    139.78
    0.928 (30th)
    OPR
    1.102 (8th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    97.5%
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    ​Dirty Dogs
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Brawlers
    2-10
    Record
    4-8
    1-4
    H2H Record
    4-1
    133.18
    Points Per Game
    140.04
    0.921 (31st)
    OPR
    1.017 (25th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    Zero
    ​Falcons
    Tale of the Tape
    Vandals
    3-9
    Record
    7-5
    2-0
    H2H Record
    0-2
    135.30
    Points Per Game
    142.97
    0.909 (33rd)
    OPR
    1.063 (14th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    74.3%
    ​Sixers
    Tale of the Tape
    Enforcers
    3-9
    Record
    6-6
    2-2
    H2H Record
    2-2
    126.39
    Points Per Game
    138.47
    0.845 (37th)
    OPR
    1.029 (21st)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    35.1%
    ​Chiefs
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Tadlock
    8-4
    Record
    10-2
    3-1
    H2H Record
    1-3
    138.63
    Points Per Game
    160.24
    1.045 (18th)
    OPR
    1.218 (2nd)
    97.5%
    Playoff Odds
    Clinched
    Drifters
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Xtreme
    5-7
    Record
    7-5
    1-3
    H2H Record
    3-1
    116.85
    Points Per Game
    143.74
    0.875 (34th)
    OPR
    1.078 (11th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    74.3%
    ​Orangebloods
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Nightmares
    7-5
    Record
    10-2
    2-2
    H2H Record
    2-2
    128.70
    Points Per Game
    162.28
    0.958 (28th)
    OPR
    1.256 (1st)
    74.3%
    Playoff Odds
    Clinched
    ECKS
    Tale of the Tape
    ​Havoc
    3-9
    Record
    7-5
    1-0
    H2H Record
    0-1
    116.78
    Points Per Game
    133.66
    0.811 (40th)
    OPR
    1.016 (26th)
    Zero
    Playoff Odds
    74.3%