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    Week 12: Games of the Week

    the-oil-blog
    Multiple teams have clinched playoff berths, and more can clinch with a win this week. 
    ​Doughboys
    Category
    ​War Pony
    8-3
    Record
    9-2
    150.48
    Points Per Game
    161.82
    1.130 (5th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.213 (2nd)
    Clinched
    Clinched
    The stakes here are huge: the winner is virtually assured a first-round bye in the playoffs. Despite stumbling last week, War Pony has been a superior team all season, and I expect them to win this one easily. 
    'Mericans
    Category
    Whackers
    6-5
    Record
    8-3
    143.72
    Points Per Game
    165.37
    1.017 (19th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.192 (3rd)
    46.2%
    100%
    The stakes differ for each team in this NFC matchup between two original OIL franchises. If the Whackers win, they are in the driver's seat for a first-round bye. If they lose, they likely lose the bye. The 'Mericans, meanwhile, absolutely need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Teams that enter Rivalry Week at 6-6 have only made the playoffs 34.3% of the time, and the 'Mericans have the tough Hangovers next week. Sadly, after starting 4-0, the 'Mericans are in real danger of missing the playoffs because I think Morgan will beat my 'Mericans this week.
    Blue Falcons
    Category
    Drifters
    6-5
    Record
    8-3
    150.60
    Points Per Game
    144.55
    1.040 (16th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.070 (12th)
    46.2%
    100%
    Similar stakes here, as the Drifters seek a first-round bye and the Falcons need a win to remain in the playoff race. Unlike the Arrogant Americans, though, I think they'll get it, setting up a win-and-in matchup next week against the Vandals. 
  • Published on

    Introducing Adjusted OPR

    the-oil-blog
    Just before the 2017 season, the OIL introduced the OIL Power Rating (OPR) system. Today, the OPR has evolved in a way that makes it easier to compare apples to apples across all conferences and all seasons. The formula and full explanation are available year-round at okiraqi.org/opr.

    The Adjusted OPR takes your team's OPR and divides it by the average OPR of all teams across each conference. The result is a multiple that illustrates exactly how your team stacks up to the baseline, perfectly average team. Below are the current OPR rankings under the new system. The FDC Chiefs' score of 1.243 means Pennington's squad is about 1.25 times stronger than the perfectly average, baseline team. Anything over 1.0 indicates an above-average team; anything below 1.0 indicates a below average team. 
    Picture
    As of now, career OPR still lists the raw score, but that will change soon. The adjusted OPR has been added to each manager page for each season played as well. Below is Pyle's manager page, evidencing the following:
    In 2012, Lucky Enuf finished 6-7 and missed the playoffs. But was his team bad or just unlucky? His raw OPR was 172.07, while the average for 2012 was 155.32. Applying the adjusted OPR formula (172.07/155.32) shows that Lucky Enuf was 1.108 times better than the average 2012 team. An adjusted OPR of 1.108 indicates that Lucky Enuf was one of the stronger teams in the league that season but fell victim to a tough schedule (for comparison, the 2012 champion's adjusted OPR was just a tick higher at 1.133).
    Picture
    And the adjusted score makes it easier to compare seasons. Henderson's manager page is instructive. 
    In 2013, his DARC NARCS finished with a losing record and missed the playoffs. In 2015, they won 11 games and finished second in the NFC. But, compared to the average team of each respective season, the 2013 DARC NARCS were a better team than the runner-up 2015 version, even while having a winning percentage 20+ points worse than 2015 (winning percentage is weighted at 20% of the OPR raw score).
    Picture
    So check out your manager pages and enjoy comparing apples to apples.
  • Published on

    Week 11: Games of the Week

    the-oil-blog
    The scheduling gods have brought us favor, as all three conferences feature matchups between top-four teams. Two teams (Lucky Enuf and War Pony) have clinched playoff berths, but the rest of the field is wide open. These games will play a huge role in who enjoys a first-round bye. 
    Category
    7-3
    ​Record
    8-2
    151.41
    ​Points Per Game
    162.18
    181.77 (10th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    189.26 (6th)
    96.4%
    ​Playoff Chances
    100%
    These two teams have similar records, but have taken different paths to get there. While the Redlegs have relied on huge games from RBs Todd Gurley and Tarik Cohen, the Cocks have won seven games off the strength of the WR corps: Odell Beckham, Jr.; Tyreek Hill; and Amari Cooper. The Redlegs are without top TE David Njoku this week, but they're still favored to win. Look at them to clinch a playoff spot and get that much closer to a first-round bye with a win here.
    Category
    7-3
    ​Record
    8-2
    149.49
    ​Points Per Game
    169.16
    177.75 (12th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    201.30 (3rd)
    96.4%
    ​Playoff Chances
    100%
    These two former champions are only one game apart, despite the Whackers outscoring the Dogs of War by an average of 20 points per game. However, due to losing two starters to byes this week, the Whackers are actually underdogs this week. But, with the Dogs missing secret weapon TE George Kittle this week, I believe the Whackers​ will move to 9-2.
    Category
    8-2
    ​Record
    8-2
    145.98
    ​Points Per Game
    159.84
    179.80 (11th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    188.81 (7th)
    100%
    ​Playoff Chances
    100%
    Despite winning 80% of their games thus far, the Drifters appear to be paper tigers . . . and they're without two starters due to byes this week. Meanwhile, the Dirty Dogs are at full strength and have average 15 points per game more than the Drifters this season. Look for the Dirty Dogs to win in a rout.
  • Published on

    Week 10 Standings and OPR

    the-oil-blog
    Week 10 saw three records being tied or set. Zerger clinched his fifth-straight winning season, tying Cliburn's record from 2006-2010 while Pyle tied the record for most consecutive playoff appearances (joining Jessen and Finch) with four. And Rogers sadly set the record for longest losing streak, with 10. Two teams have now clinched playoff spots: Pyle and Venable.
    AFC
    NFC
    PFC
    There is a new number one in the OIL Power Rankings, as Morgan was upset by Yancy's Roughnecks ​(although, even with the loss, Morgan only fell to third, evidencing how strong his team has been). Of the top 10, four are from the AFC, three from the NFC, and three from the PFC. 
    Picture
  • Published on

    Week Nine: Standings, OPR, and the Record Book

    the-oil-blog
    Just four weeks remain in the regular season, and no one has clinched a playoff spot (although it's safe to say the 8-1 teams will be in the tournament). Morgan's Whackers are one of those 8-1 teams, and they are on pace to break the Redlegs record for most points scored in a season. Morgan can break the record if he averages 161.34 points per game over the final month of the season. He is currently averaging over 172 points per game, so that seems doable. 

    On the flip side, the AMMODOGS are on pace break the Hangovers record for most difficult schedule. Should their opponents average 147.12 points per game these final four games, Rogers sets the record. Unfortunately, facing that tough of a schedule has had its toll on the DOGS, and in Week Nine they set the record for most consecutive losses to begin a season (nine). You can view all records here. 

    The OPR is updated and the top 10 consists of three AFC teams, three NFC teams, and four PFC teams. Finally, two teams scored their season-high totals this week and yet lost. That's got to sting for Baldwin and Cordes. 
    AFC
    NFC
    PFC
    Picture