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    2018 Playoffs: Semifinals

    the-oil-blog
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    Multiple first-round games came down to the MNF wire, and I'm hoping for similar drama this week. One thing is for sure: there will be no back-to-back champions in any conference. 2017 AFC Champion Zerger's Redlegs lost, as did 2017 NFC Champion Cliburn's Arrogant Americans. 2017 PFC champion Brake and Boomtown Brawlers just missed the playoffs.
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    The six-seed Doughboys trounced the Warm Bodies, as Nye was betrayed by Jordan Reed and Jared Goff (despite a whopping 31 points from Ezekiel Elliott). Meanwhile the Redlegs underachieved at every position except for QB, where rookie Lamar Jackson did more than his part. The Vultures moved on with big games from Patrick Mahomes and Julio Jones.
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    Doughboys​
    Category
    ​War Pony
    9-5
    Record
    11-2
    151.42
    ​Points Per Game
    163.82
    1.103 (8th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.201 (2nd)
    3-3
    ​H2H Record
    3-3
    Loss 167.85-197.65
    ​Week 12 Result
    Win 197.65-167.85
    Zero
    ​Championships
    2014; 2015
    If Green's Doughboys win this week, they'll be heading to the Thunder Bowl for the third time, although they've yet to secure a championship. If Melvin Gordon plays for War Pony, I think it'll be enough to push Venable's team over the top. But, if not, this is the epitome of a toss-up. 
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    Vultures
    Category
    ​Cocks
    10-4
    Record
    9-4
    143.28
    ​Points Per Game
    148.38
    1.034 (16th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.075 (11th)
    3-2
    ​H2H Record
    2-3
    Win 133.10-123.75
    ​Week Two Result
    Loss 123.75-133.10
    Zero
    ​Championships
    Zero
    Whoever wins this matchup will be heading to the Thunder Bowl for the first time in franchise history. I predict that team will be the Vultures. The teams are evenly-matched, but the Cocks may have to replace their top two WRs, as Odell Beckham, Jr. and Tyreek Hill are both questionable. I think Brosh will squeak by as a result.
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    The defending champion Arrogant Americans were knocked out in the first round by the Whackers (or, more specifically, Amari Cooper). Meanwhile, SoonerJack outlasted the Roughnecks to move on to the semifinals, where each matchup features franchises that have won championships already.
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    ​SoonerJack
    Category
    Lucky Enuf
    9-5
    Record
    10-3
    147.10
    ​Points Per Game
    159.49
    1.051 (13th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.146 (4th)
    8-6
    ​H2H Record
    6-8
    Win 184.95-106.90
    Week 11 Result
    Loss 106.90-184.90
    2008; 2011; 2015
    ​Championships
    2006; 2008
    Bruesch and Pyle were with us in Iraq 12 years ago and each has been in the OIL at least 12 seasons. Lucky Enuf won the very first OIL Bowl in 2006, and the two longtime OILers famously tied in the 2008 OIL Bowl. Between the two, they account for five championships.

    In keeping with tradition, Pyle has lost a key starter in the playoffs, as QB Carson Wentz is likely out this week. But his team is solid all the way around, and I predict he'll beat Bruesch to reach the OIL Bowl for the first time since that infamous 2008 season.
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    ​Whackers
    Category
    ​Dogs of War
    10-4
    Record
    10-3
    162.52
    ​Points Per Game
    152.42
    1.177 (3rd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.112 (7th)
    3-8
    ​H2H Record
    8-3
    Loss 127.90-159.90
    ​Week 11 Result
    Win 159.90-127.90
    2007
    ​Championships
    2013
    The Dogs of War claimed the two-seed after Cobb navigated them to their first 10-win regular season. Meanwhile, the Whackers looked poised to clinch the one-seed until a three-game losing streak late in the season knocked him down to number three. But this is still the same team that started 8-1. Their late-season QB injuries and tough strength of schedule should overshadow that. The Dogs of War  started out 0-2 before winning 10 out of their next 11, so this is a great matchup. 

    Had Cobb not secured a first-round bye, he would have benefited from 47 points from Derrick Henry. But we all know the deal with Henry. You get one great game and then two duds. This week will be a dud, and Cobb needs a huge week from somebody to win this matchup. Morgan's team is superior at every position except QB and TE, and I predict they'll make it to the OIL Bowl for the first time since 2007.
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    A heartbreaking defeat for the Blue Falcons ended their season last week. It all came down to getting nine points from WR David Moore on Monday night, but he dropped a zero on Baldwin instead. I feel like the betrayal stung more than usual because Moore played at East Central University in Oklahoma. This is one of Baldwin's home-state boys, and he screwed him (well, Russell Wilson and the stellar Minnesota defense maybe had something to do with it as well). 

    ​In the other matchup, Bellar is thanking his lucky stars after advancing to the semifinals despite only scoring 116 points (26 points below the league average of 142.95). If ever there was a time to beat the Xtreme, it was this week. But the Orangebloods were killed by Jared Goff's four-interception game and now McKay is sitting at home wondering what could have been. 
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    The ​Xtreme
    Category
    FDC Chiefs
    10-4
    Record
    11-2
    138.83
    ​Points Per Game
    173.28
    1.020 (18th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.250 (1st)
    2-3
    ​H2H Record
    3-2
    Loss 100.95-193.10
    ​Week Four Result
    Win 193.10-100.95
    Zero
    Championships
    Zero
    Bellar was Xtremely luck last week, barely squeaking by the Orangebloods despite scoring fewer than 117 points, and their reward is a date with the top-ranked FDC Chiefs, who have already beaten the Xtreme by over 90 points in their first meeting. The Chiefs average a whopping 35 more points per game than the Xtreme, and they're favored here by 43 points.

    ​I think Bellar's luck runs out here, as Pennington's team is rock solid and set a record for most points in a season this year. If Bellar pulls off the upset (and anything is possible in fantasy football), it will be one of the most memorable playoff games in OIL history.
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    Great Plains Drifters
    Category
    Dirty Dogs
    10-4
    Record
    10-3
    145.09
    ​Points Per Game
    157.68
    1.056 (12th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.136 (5th)
    1-4
    ​H2H Record
    4-1
    Loss 130.25-145.35
    ​Week 11 Result
    Win 145.35-130.25
    Zero
    Championships
    2016
    I'm very conflicted by the Drifters. On one hand, their manager, Doc Gray, was present at the draft cabin for the fourth-consecutive year. But, on the other hand, he auto-drafted by choice. And now he's in the semifinals? Life isn't fair. But Buehre's Dirty Dogs are set up to put an end to this bizarre Cinderella story. Let's hope so. 
  • Published on

    2018 Playoffs: Round One

    the-oil-blog
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    Of 18 playoff contenders, eight of them (almost half!) account for 15 previous championships. They are: The AFC has only known two champions in its history, and each are in the hunt this year. In the NFC, only the Roughnecks are seeking their first championship. Meanwhile, the PFC only has a one-in-six chance of a repeat champion. 

    Click on the matchup title to view the game on Yahoo!​. 
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    Venable and Peacock enjoy a first-round bye this week, while last year's championship participants (Zerger and Green) join Nye and Brosh in having to fight their way to the semifinals.

    ​Doughboys
    Category
    Warm Bodies
    8-5
    ​Record
    9-4
    151.42
    ​Points Per Game
    145.12
    1.102 (9th)
    OPR (Rank)
    1.077 (11th)
    4-2
    H2H Record
    2-4
    The early game Sunday pits Green against Nye, who seems perpetually underrated. The Doughboys lost James Conner to injury this week, but their team is solid. It will have to be if Green wants to move on to the semifinals for the third-straight season. I don't think he does, although his team is arguably superior. 
    Redlegs
    Category
    Vultures
    8-5
    ​Record
    9-4
    157.11
    ​Points Per Game
    143.28
    1.113 (7th)
    OPR (Rank)
    1.033 (17th)
    3-3
    ​H2H Record
    3-3
    Brosh is right: he should have lost last week. If he did, he wouldn't be facing the two-time defending champions in the first round. But here we are. I am thisclose to picking the Vultures in an upset, but I can't get past their glaring weak spot at TE: CJ Uzomah. However, their QB (Patrick Mahomes) could easily put up 40 while Redlegs QB Lamar Jackson could disappoint. This is a toss-up. 

    Editor's note: I love seeing these matchups between guys who were at the draft cabin in August. 
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    Former champions Pyle and Cobb enjoy first-round byes after Morgan stumbled down the stretch. Of the four teams playing on the opening weekend, only the Roughnecks don't have their name on the Lawson Memorial Trophy. 

    '​Mericans
    Category
    ​Whackers
    8-5
    ​Record
    9-4
    144.50
    ​Points Per Game
    162.52
    1.040 (16th)
    OPR (Rank)
    1.177 (4th)
    8-5
    ​H2H Record
    5-8
    This is another matchup between managers who drafted together at the cabin. The Whackers have been the favorite all season, but they stumbled down the stretch due to losing a starting QB and RB to injury. And they lost to this 'Mericans team just two weeks ago. Still, their team is superior to my 'Mericans and I'm picking them to gain revenge and move on to the semifinals behind a big rebound game from Alvin Kamara. The 'Mericans​, meanwhile, will need big games from QB Jameis Winston and its WR corps in order to stand a chance. 

    ​SoonerJack
    Category
    ​Roughnecks
    8-5
    ​Record
    9-4
    147.10
    ​Points Per Game
    155.71
    1.050 (14th)
    OPR (Rank)
    1.124 (6th)
    5-3
    ​H2H Record
    3-5
    Well, what do you know? Baldwin finally shows up to draft his team in-person and he has his best season in years. Bruesch was not at the draft cabin (although he did golf with us beforehand), but he always drafts his own team. This matchup is incredibly balanced, with each team missing their star RB (Melvin Gordon for the Roughnecks; Leonard Fournette for SoonerJack). I'm picking the Roughnecks to notch their 10th win of the season with or without Gordon. 
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    Falcons
    Category
    Drifters
    7-6
    ​Record
    9-4
    149.02
    ​Points Per Game
    145.09
    1.044 (15th)
    OPR (Rank)
    1.056 (13th)
    0-5
    ​H2H Record
    5-0
    The Blue Falcons needed a win to jumpfrog Team Tadlock for the final playoff spot, and they got it done. Now, they face the 9-4 Great Plains Drifters. I predict the Falcons will pull off the upset behind big games from QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Alvin Kamara, and TE Zach Ertz. Their reward? Facing the top-ranked FDC Chiefs in the semifinals. 
    Orangebloods
    Category
    ​Xtreme
    8-5
    ​Record
    9-4
    139.52
    ​Points Per Game
    138.83
    0.988 (22nd)
    OPR (Rank)
    1.019 (19th)
    1-3
    ​H2H Record
    3-1
    Both of these teams finished outside the top-18 in OPR, but each took advantage of favorable schedules to make the 18-team playoff field. While McKay should be commended for steering his Orangebloods to an 8-5 record, I think they are outmatched this week. Even at full strength, the 'bloods​ are objectively a below-average team, with an OPR of 0.988 (1.000 is perfectly average). And now, AJ Green is on IR and Leonard Fournette is 50/50 to play. The Xtreme will roll behind QB Drew Brees and RB Christian McCaffrey. 
  • Published on

    Final Regular Season Standings and OPR

    the-oil-blog
    AFC
    NFC
    PFC
    Congratulations to all 18 playoff contenders. There were some incredibly tough breaks (such as Duffy losing two games by a combined 0.15 points or Tadlock missing the playoffs despite having the second-most points in the PFC), but that's the way the cookie crumbled. Pennington set the record for most points in a season while Rogers sadly broke the record for most losses (with an 0-13 record). 
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    The final OPR rankings are below. Pennington topped the league but fell just short of setting the record for best OPR (1.297 in 2010 by the Arrogant Americans). The top 10 is comprised of four NFC teams and three each from the AFC and PFC. 
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  • Published on

    2018 Rivalry Week Preview

    the-oil-blog
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    Finally, Rivalry Week is upon us. For some leagues, Week 13 has no special significance. And, if the AFC were one of those other leagues, it would certainly have little relevance, as all six playoff spots are clinched. But the OIL is different, and we reserve the last week of the regular season for rivalry games. See the matchups after the jump. Commentary is limited to matchups that have playoff implications, as 21 matchups is a lot to sift through when the commish is about to head to DFW for the Saints-Cowboys game. 
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    ​Vultures
    Category
    ​Doughboys
    8-4
    Record
    7-5
    141.75
    ​Points Per Game
    154.08
    1.016 (19th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.089 ​(7th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    The Vultures can improve their playoff seed, but they're not likely to move into a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the Doughboys can clinch a first-round bye with a victory.
    Cocks
    Category
    ​Sawtooths
    8-4
    Record
    4-8
    150.90
    ​Points Per Game
    141.48
    1.072 (13th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.944 (25th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    Should the Vultures upset the Doughboys, the Cocks can move into the number-two spot with a win here. 
    ​Brewmasters
    Category
    Steel Reign
    4-8
    Record
    5-7
    138.57
    ​Points Per Game
    138.56
    0.931 (28th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.915 (30th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    War Eagle
    Category
    NDs
    5-7
    Record
    4-8
    133.16
    ​Points Per Game
    136.13
    0.898 (33rd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.908 (31st)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    ​War Pony
    Category
    Hooligans
    10-2
    Record
    4-8
    164.81
    ​Points Per Game
    118.61
    ​1.195 (2nd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.808 (39th)​
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    ​Apes
    Category
    Warm Bodies
    4-8
    Record
    8-4
    137.18
    ​Points Per Game
    147.44
    0.938 (26th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.073 (12th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    ​Rebels
    Category
    Redlegs
    5-7
    Record
    7-5
    153.68
    ​Points Per Game
    154.08
    1.008 (21st)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.089 (10th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
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    Hangovers
    Category
    'Mericans
    5-7
    Record
    7-5
    155.18
    ​Points Per Game
    144.84
    1.036 (15th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.029 (17th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    74.2%
    Due to Christian McCaffrey's 46 points last week, the Hangovers have been eliminated from playoff contention. But they can still play spoiler and knock the 'Mericans out of the playoffs with a win. That's what I expect to happen, although the 'Mericans can back their way into the playoffs if Dead Again loses.
    AMMODOGS
    Category
    DominationStation
    0-12
    Record
    5-7
    119.74
    ​Points Per Game
    154.61
    .724 (42nd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.020 (18th)
    ​Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    NARCS
    Category
    ​Hippies
    4-8
    Record
    4-8
    138.71
    ​Points Per Game
    130.81
    0.899 (32nd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.868 (37th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    Dead Again
    Category
    Lucky Enuf
    7-5
    Record
    10-2
    135.5
    ​Points Per Game
    161.44
    0.938 (27th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.162 (4th)
    74.2%
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    Lucky Enuf has the number-one seed locked up, but they can keep Dead Again from making the playoffs with a win here. If Dead Again wants to break his eight-year streak of no playoffs, he will have to win and hope the 'Mericans lose. 
    ​Roughnecks
    Category
    ​Hard Targets
    8-4
    Record
    5-7
    ​Points Per Game
    1.121 (6th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.968 (24th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    ​Whackers
    Category
    ​Nobodies
    8-4
    Record
    4-8
    164.05
    ​Points Per Game
    138.08
    1.171 (3rd)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.927 (29th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    If the Whackers take care of business here, they can clinch a first-round bye with a loss by the Dogs of War. The Nobodies have nothing to play for but pride at this point.
    Dogs of War
    Category
    ​SoonerJack
    9-3
    Record
    8-4
    150.30
    ​Points Per Game
    149.52
    1.093 (9th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.066 (14th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    96.9%
    The Dogs of War can clinch a first-round bye with a win here. Even with a loss, it's likely that SoonerJack makes the playoffs, but a win would cement it. They'll be without Leonard Fournette though, as he was suspended for setting a bad example for America's youth.
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    ​Dogs
    Category
    ​Brawlers
    10-2
    Record
    5-7
    159.82
    ​Points Per Game
    147.11
    1.153 (5th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.994 (22nd)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    This is a re-match of last year's title game, but this year is completely different. The Brawlers have had bad luck all season and will not make the playoffs for the first time in their OIL tenure. Even with a loss, the Dogs will likely clinch a first-round bye.
    Vandals
    Category
    Falcons
    4-8
    Record
    6-6
    135.21
    ​Points Per Game
    148.69
    0.880 (35th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.029 (16th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    34.3%
    This is a must-win for the Blue Falcons. They need to win and have either Team Tadlock or the Orangebloods lose in order to sneak into the playoffs. 
    ​Sixers
    Category
    ​Enforcers
    4-8
    Record
    3-9
    131.57
    ​Points Per Game
    127.69
    0.878 (36th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.839 (38th)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Zero
    ​Tadlock
    Category
    ​Chiefs
    6-6
    Record
    10-2
    162.08
    ​Points Per Game
    171.79
    1.108 (8th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.234 (1st)
    34.3%
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    Team Tadlock have the second-most points in the PFC and the eighth-best OPR in the entire OIL, but they're sitting at 6-6 due to a string of bad luck. They can sneak into the playoffs with a loss as long as the Blue Falcons lose, but they can clinch the playoff spot with a win. The Chiefs have won seven straight and are the strongest team in the OIL, so it'll be tough. 
    ​Drifters
    Category
    Xtreme
    9-3
    Record
    8-4
    146.29
    ​Points Per Game
    139.45
    1.080 (11th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    1.010 (20th)
    Clinched
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    Both these teams have clinched playoff spots, but neither has a realistic chance at securing a first-round bye. This game will instead determine the three and four seeds. 
    Nightmares
    Category
    Orangebloods
    4-8
    Record
    7-5
    129.97
    ​Points Per Game
    139.91
    0.891 (34th)
    ​OPR (Rank)
    0.977 (23rd)
    Zero
    Playoff Chances
    Clinched
    The Orangebloods are in a good spot but a scenario exists where they lose this game and miss the playoffs. They would have to lose while both Team Tadlock and the Blue Falcons won in order to for that to happen. It's not incredibly likely, but the Orangebloods control their destiny and should take advantage.
  • Published on

    Week 12: Standings; OPR; and Playoff Picture

    the-oil-blog
    Heading into Rivalry Week, a whopping 12 of 18 playoff berths are clinched. Below are the standings and playoff picture for each conference. 
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    Well, this is a first. With one week remaining, all six playoff spots are clinched. Now all that is left is the seeding. Venable and War Pony are locked into the one seed and a first-round bye. The number-two spot is a toss-up between Green and Peacock, as the Doughboys and Cocks are separated by just 13 points. Should each of them win, it will come down to their point totals to determine who gets a coveted first-round bye. The Warm Bodies and Vultures each sport the same 8-4 record as the second- and third-place teams, but Nye and Brosh are so far behind in points that neither can overtake Green and Peacock. The six seed is Zerger and his two-time defending champion Redlegs. With a win and losses by three of the four teams ahead of him (aside from Venable), he can finish as high as third due to his high point total.